IPS has highlighted that Republic will need 60,000 migrants a year to keep Singaporean young and economically active. It's the result of project which the IPS embarked in 2007 in which studied 48 scenarios which examined how the future population of Singapore will look like if the TFR remains extremely low over the long term. There are 4 scenarios submitted to government which reflect the conditions of the study time. They are pretty interesting story for the migrants especially those who are trying to get SPRs. The 4 scenarios could be summarized as follow:-
Scenario 1 : TFR 1.24 & zero net migration => 3.03 million in 2050
Scenario 2 : TFR 1.24 & 30,000 migrants added annually => 4.89 million in 2050
Scenario 3 : TFR 1.24 & 60,000 migrants added annually => 6.76 million in 2050
Scenario 4 : TFR 1.24 to 1.85 by 2025 & zero net migration => 3.37 million in 2050
TFR refer to Total Fertility Rate and current TFR for city state is 1.15 only which is far less than sustainable rate 2.2 if ICA is to close all its doors to migrants. IPS refer to Institute of Policy Studies. I think TFR 1.24 utilized in their projection is expected rate to get favorable figure. If IPS use actual 1.15, the result is likely to become more adverse.
It don't stop on just replacement of declining population, but also healing the trend of alarming ratio between elderly person to working adult. In 2005 research, it show every 8.6 working adult support to 1 elderly person (65 years and above). Working adult is considered the age group between 15 and 65 years old. If Singapore is not opening its doors to migrants, the ratio would decline to 1.9 : 1.0 which mean every 1.9 working adults have to support one elderly person. IPS suggest that in-migration alone would ameliorate this decline. In conclusion, immigration helps to reduce the dependency burden and raise the support ratio.
The figures has enlighten Singapore government and its people. The choice is theirs and to my opinion, it's most likely to opt scenario no.2 by ruling party. If my guess is right, the chance will come back to those who try to get SPR. At the same time I hope Singaporean will understand the trend they are actually face and see newly migrants as the solution of their future. If everything goes per plan, everybody will be happy and of course Singapore will become better metropolitan city to live in.
Scenario 1 : TFR 1.24 & zero net migration => 3.03 million in 2050
Scenario 2 : TFR 1.24 & 30,000 migrants added annually => 4.89 million in 2050
Scenario 3 : TFR 1.24 & 60,000 migrants added annually => 6.76 million in 2050
Scenario 4 : TFR 1.24 to 1.85 by 2025 & zero net migration => 3.37 million in 2050
TFR refer to Total Fertility Rate and current TFR for city state is 1.15 only which is far less than sustainable rate 2.2 if ICA is to close all its doors to migrants. IPS refer to Institute of Policy Studies. I think TFR 1.24 utilized in their projection is expected rate to get favorable figure. If IPS use actual 1.15, the result is likely to become more adverse.
It don't stop on just replacement of declining population, but also healing the trend of alarming ratio between elderly person to working adult. In 2005 research, it show every 8.6 working adult support to 1 elderly person (65 years and above). Working adult is considered the age group between 15 and 65 years old. If Singapore is not opening its doors to migrants, the ratio would decline to 1.9 : 1.0 which mean every 1.9 working adults have to support one elderly person. IPS suggest that in-migration alone would ameliorate this decline. In conclusion, immigration helps to reduce the dependency burden and raise the support ratio.
The figures has enlighten Singapore government and its people. The choice is theirs and to my opinion, it's most likely to opt scenario no.2 by ruling party. If my guess is right, the chance will come back to those who try to get SPR. At the same time I hope Singaporean will understand the trend they are actually face and see newly migrants as the solution of their future. If everything goes per plan, everybody will be happy and of course Singapore will become better metropolitan city to live in.
No comments:
Post a Comment